Critical, long-overdue BlackBerry makeover arrives

TORONTO (AP) — BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd. will kick off a critical, long-overdue makeover when chief executive Thorsten Heins shows off the first phone with the new BlackBerry 10 system in New York on Wednesday.

Repeated delays have left the once-pioneering BlackBerry an afterthought in the shadow of Apple’s trend-setting iPhone and Google’s Android-driven devices. There has even been talk that the fate of the company that created the BlackBerry in 1999 is no longer certain.

Now, there’s some optimism. Previews of the BlackBerry 10 software have gotten favorable reviews on blogs. Financial analysts are starting to see some slight room for a comeback. RIM‘s stock has more than doubled to $ 15.66 from a nine-year low in September, though it’s still nearly 90 percent below its 2008 peak of $ 147.

RIM redesigned the system to embrace the multimedia, apps and touch-screen experience prevalent today. The company is promising a speedier device, a superb typing experience and the ability to keep work and personal identities separate on the same phone.

Most analysts consider a BlackBerry 10 success to be crucial for the company’s long-term viability. Doubts remain about the ability of BlackBerry 10 to rescue RIM.

“We’ll see if they can reclaim their glory. My sense is that it will be a phone that everyone says good things about but not as many people buy,” BGC Financial analyst Colin Gillis said.

Jefferies analyst Peter Misek called it a “great device” and said RIM does have some momentum just months after the Canadian company was written off for dead.

“Six months ago we talked to developers and carriers, and everybody was just basically saying ‘We’re just waiting for this to go bust,’” Misek said. “It was bad.”

The BlackBerry has been the dominant smartphone for on-the-go business people and crossed over to consumers. But when the iPhone came out in 2007, it showed that phones can do much more than email and phone calls. Suddenly, the BlackBerry looked ancient. In the U.S., according to research firm IDC, shipments of BlackBerry phones plummeted from 46 percent of the market in 2008 to 2 percent in 2012.

RIM promised a new system to catch up, using technology it got through its 2010 purchase of QNX Software Systems. RIM initially said BlackBerry 10 would come by early 2012, but then the company changed that to late 2012. A few months later, that date was pushed further, to early 2013, missing the lucrative holiday season. The holdup helped wipe out more than $ 70 billion in shareholder wealth and 5,000 jobs.

Although executives have been providing a glimpse at some of BlackBerry 10′s new features for months, Heins will finally showcase a complete system at Wednesday’s event. Devices will go on sale soon after that. The exact date and prices are expected Wednesday.

Regardless of BlackBerry 10′s advances, though, the new system will face a key shortcoming: It won’t have as many apps written by outside companies and individuals as the iPhone and Android. RIM has said it plans to launch BlackBerry 10 with more than 70,000 apps, including those developed for RIM’s PlayBook tablet, first released in 2011. Even so, that’s just a tenth of what the iPhone and Android offer. Popular service such as Instagram and Netflix won’t have apps on BlackBerry 10.

Gillis said he’ll be looking to see when RIM releases a keyboard version of the new phone. The first BlackBerry 10 phone will have only a touch screen. RIM has said a physical keyboard version will be released soon after. He said a delay could alienate RIM’s 79 million subscribers.

“The No. 1 feature that they like is the physical keyboard,” Gillis said.

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Actor Jason London arrested after Ariz. bar fight

PHOENIX (AP) — Authorities say actor Jason London has been arrested on suspicion of assault and disorderly conduct after an Arizona bar fight.

Scottsdale police say London allegedly sneezed on a man who then asked him to apologize, but London refused and instead hit the man in the face.

The Arizona Republic (http://bit.ly/VoULau ) says the two men were escorted out of the bar, but London began pushing and cursing at firefighters trying to treat him and appeared extremely drunk. He was arrested early Monday.

London’s Twitter account says “some guy thought I was hitting on his girl” and that several large bouncers beat him, breaking bones in his face. London added, “the truth will win” and “I hate Arizona.”

London is best known for the 1993 movie “Dazed and Confused.”

___

Information from: The Arizona Republic, http://www.azcentral.com

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Well: Helmets for Ski and Snowboard Safety

Recently, researchers from the department of sport science at the University of Innsbruck in Austria stood on the slopes at a local ski resort and trained a radar gun on a group of about 500 skiers and snowboarders, each of whom had completed a lengthy personality questionnaire about whether he or she tended to be cautious or a risk taker.

The researchers had asked their volunteers to wear their normal ski gear and schuss or ride down the slopes at their preferred speed. Although they hadn’t informed the volunteers, their primary aim was to determine whether wearing a helmet increased people’s willingness to take risks, in which case helmets could actually decrease safety on the slopes.

What they found was reassuring.

To many of us who hit the slopes with, in my case, literal regularity — I’m an ungainly novice snowboarder — the value of wearing a helmet can seem self-evident. They protect your head from severe injury. During the Big Air finals at the Winter X Games in Aspen, Colo., this past weekend, for instance, 23-year-old Icelandic snowboarder Halldor Helgason over-rotated on a triple back flip, landed head-first on the snow, and was briefly knocked unconscious. But like the other competitors he was wearing a helmet, and didn’t fracture his skull.

Indeed, studies have concluded that helmets reduce the risk of a serious head injury by as much as 60 percent. But a surprising number of safety experts and snowsport enthusiasts remain unconvinced that helmets reduce overall injury risk.

Why? A telling 2009 survey of ski patrollers from across the country found that 77 percent did not wear helmets because they worried that the headgear could reduce their peripheral vision, hearing and response times, making them slower and clumsier. In addition, many worried that if they wore helmets, less-adept skiers and snowboarders might do likewise, feel invulnerable and engage in riskier behavior on the slopes.

In the past several years, a number of researchers have attempted to resolve these concerns, for or against helmets. And in almost all instances, helmets have proved their value.

In the Innsbruck speed experiment, the researchers found that people whom the questionnaires showed to be risk takers skied and rode faster than those who were by nature cautious. No surprise.

But wearing a helmet did not increase people’s speed, as would be expected if the headgear encouraged risk taking. Cautious people were slower than risk-takers, whether they wore helmets or not; and risk-takers were fast, whether their heads were helmeted or bare.

Interestingly, the skiers and riders who were the most likely, in general, to don a helmet were the most expert, the men and women with the most talent and hours on the slopes. Experience seemed to have taught them the value of a helmet.

Off of the slopes, other new studies have brought skiers and snowboarders into the lab to test their reaction times and vision with and without helmets. Peripheral vision and response times are a serious safety concern in a sport where skiers and riders rapidly converge from multiple directions.

But when researchers asked snowboarders and skiers to wear caps, helmets, goggles or various combinations of each for a 2011 study and then had them sit before a computer screen and press a button when certain images popped up, they found that volunteers’ peripheral vision and reaction times were virtually unchanged when they wore a helmet, compared with wearing a hat. Goggles slightly reduced peripheral vision and increased response times. But helmets had no significant effect.

Even when researchers added music, testing snowboarders and skiers wearing Bluetooth-audio equipped helmets, response times did not increase significantly from when they wore wool caps.

So why do up to 40 percent of skiers and snowboarders still avoid helmets?

“The biggest reason, I think, is that many people never expect to fall,” says Dr. Adil H. Haider, a trauma surgeon and associate professor of surgery at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and co-author of a major new review of studies related to winter helmet use. “That attitude is especially common in people, like me, who are comfortable on blue runs but maybe not on blacks, and even more so in beginners.”

But a study published last spring detailing snowboarding injuries over the course of 18 seasons at a Vermont ski resort found that the riders at greatest risk of hurting themselves were female beginners. I sympathize.

The takeaway from the growing body of science about ski helmets is in fact unequivocal, Dr. Haider said. “Helmets are safe. They don’t seem to increase risk taking. And they protect against serious, even fatal head injuries.”

The Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma, of which Dr. Haider is a member, has issued a recommendation that “all recreational skiers and snowboarders should wear safety helmets,” making them the first medical group to go on record advocating universal helmet use.

Perhaps even more persuasive, Dr. Haider has given helmets to all of his family members and colleagues who ski or ride. “As a trauma surgeon, I know how difficult it is to fix a brain,” he said. “So everyone I care about wears a helmet.”

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Chicago Booth social enterprise program gets $5M gift

Retired CDW Chairman and Chief Executive John Edwardson has donated $5 million to the social enterprise initiative at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business.

The gift is the first directed to the social enterprise effort, which launched last March. It will pay for research and larger cash awards to the winners of the school's annual social new venture competition.

Social enterprises try to achieve philanthropic goals, such as pollution and poverty reduction, through business tactics and discipline. They are often for-profit operations that put tackling complex social problems ahead of rewarding shareholder.

"One of the things I've been concerned about, and I think that kids are different today, is that when I was at Booth, we were focused on one thing and that was getting out of Booth and making a lot of money," said Edwardson, who graduated from the school in 1972. "Over the years, one thing that has become important to me is helping students learn to share what they have when they have a little, so that when they have a lot, they would be willing to share a lot."

Social entrepreneurship programs have brought a softer edge to business schools. Examples include a company trying to develop cheap, solar-powered batteries for sub-Saharan Africa, or a home retrofitting company or a restaurant that mostly employs ex-convicts.

The school's competition for social ventures business plans is being renamed the John Edwardson Social New Venture Challenge. Last year, 19 teams of three to five students competed for $55,000 in prize money, split among the top four finishers, said Booth spokesman Allan Friedman.

In comparison, the school's more traditional startup competition had 33 teams vying for $75,000 in prize money, split among the top 10 teams, Friedman said.

"I had agreed to endow a professorship, but it just wasn't exciting me very much," Edwardson said. "And then when I went to the social new venture challenge, and it really excited me. And I thought this is where I want my gift to go, to help do more of this."

From 2001 to 2011, Edwardson was CEO and chairman of Vernon Hills-based CDW, a computer equipment reseller. He stayed on as chairman for one more year to ensure a smooth transition.

He also is the chairman of Booth's alumni advisory board, known as the Council on Chicago Booth, and will be the lead volunteer fundraiser for the school's upcoming capital campaign. Edwardson said no fundraising goal has been set.

mmharris@tribune.com | Twitter @chiconfidential

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Butler's 19 points lead Bulls over Bobcats

To Jimmy Butler, it's simple.

Whether he's averaging 45.2 minutes in the five games he started for Luol Deng or playing 31 minutes, 14 seconds in reserve of Deng and others, as he did during Monday's 93-85 victory over the Bobcats, his role remains the same.

"Rebound, guard and make some open shots," Butler said. "Starting gave me a lot more confidence. But I'm still able to do those things (off the bench)."

Indeed, Butler stole the show, backing up his promise with a career-high 19 points and six rebounds, playing at shooting guard alongside Deng for a long second-quarter stretch and most of the final 5:28.

"Jimmy's a big part of the team," coach Tom Thibodeau said. "Lu has been huge for us. We know we have flexibility. You do what's best for the team."

Deng returned after missing five games with an injured right hamstring and finished with 12 points in just over 31 minutes as the Bulls avenged their New Year's Eve home loss to the Bobcats.

"I felt great," Deng said. "I hadn't gone full speed like that, so I was a little worried about the change of speed and direction. So I'm happy I was able not to have any setbacks. It felt a little tight, but it didn't feel like how it felt when I first did it."

Thibodeau admitted he didn't want to overextend Deng's minutes in his first game while casually plugging him for defensive player of the year.

"There may not be a better defender in the league," Thibodeau said.

At least against the speedy, perimeter-driven Bobcats, minutes dropped for Marco Belinelli and Richard Hamilton. Thibodeau even used the combination of Kirk Hinrich and Nate Robinson for a brief third-quarter stretch.

"They went real small," Thibodeau said. "I liked (Butler's) quickness out there defensively."

The Bulls pulled away late in the third after the Bobcats tied it at 55-55 with 3:36 remaining. Joakim Noah, huge again with a double-double, seven assists and five blocks in nearly 45 minutes, scored on a three-point play. Robinson, who contributed 15 points off the bench, fueled a 13-0 run with two 3-pointers as the Bobcats failed to score for 4:24.

With 13 points and 18 rebounds, Noah became the first Bull to grab 15 or more rebounds in four straight games since Dennis Rodman in March 1998.

Robinson poured it on in the fourth, scoring eight points as the Bulls pushed their lead to 14. But old friend Ben Gordon found his range in the final period as well, scoring 10 of his 18 points as the Bobcats trimmed the lead to six late.

That's when Carlos Boozer powered home a left-handed dunk over Bismack Biyombo off a feed from Robinson with 1:24 left to jazz the sellout crowd of 21,308.

"As long as we play the type of basketball we know we're capable of, we can beat any team," Butler said. "We can also lose to any team if we don't."

kcjohnson@tribune.com

Twitter @kcjhoop

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Cómo se desarrolló el Linux de las netbooks educativas

La elección de un sistema operativo para una computadora es una situación que, en situaciones cotidianas al ingresar a una tienda de venta de artículos electrónicos, está marcada por la presencia de la plataforma Windows de Microsoft. Nada de esto impide que los usuarios puedan optar por software libre, sin costo alguno al momento de realizar la descarga e instalación, con propuestas como Ubuntu, Fedora o Mint , por mencionar sólo algunas de las alternativas disponibles en Internet.

Esto mismo ocurrió con el plan Conectar Igualdad, que busca desarrollar su propia plataforma basada en GNU-Linux adaptada a las necesidades de la comunidad educativa, tanto para los docentes como para los alumnos.

La inciativa comenzó a tomar forma en 2010, cuando Javier Castrillo comenzó a trabajar en Conectar Igualdad, el programa del gobierno nacional que distribuye computadoras portátiles para alumnos y docentes de escuelas públicas. Desde aquel momento, con el antecedente de haber coordinado la implementación de estas iniciativas en el ambiente educativo, impulsó con su equipo el desarrollo de Huayra, el sistema operativo libre basado en GNU-Linux de las netbooks escolares.

“Debido al porte de este programa era necesaria una plataforma estable, libre, un estándar y sobre todo con soberanía tecnológica, para no depender de ninguna corporación. Con nuestro sistema nos aseguramos que va a ser constante en el tiempo, que va a ser gratuito para todos aquellos que lo quieran descargar y, por sobre todas las cosas, libre. Todo el código está publicado a disposición para que cualquiera que tenga los conocimientos lo pueda auditar y modificar”, asegura Javier Castrillo, coordinador del Proyecto Huayra.

En una entrevista exclusiva con LA NACIÓN , Javier Castrillo habla sobre la plataforma, sus características y los prejuicios que aún existen sobre el software libre.

¿Qué es Huayra?

Es el sistema operativo libre que las netbooks del Programa Conectar Igualdad van a traer instaladas a partir de este año. Además cualquier persona puede descargarlo en su máquina desde huayra.conectarigualdad.gob.ar

Está basado en Debian GNU/Linux, es seguro, ágil y con un desarrollo realizado en la Argentina, teniendo en cuenta las necesidades tanto de estudiantes como de docentes, y manteniendo nuestra identidad nacional.

¿En qué instancia se encuentra el desarrollo?

Está en fase Beta pero ya se puede bajar y utilizar.

Un mito presente en este tipo de plataformas es que muchas personas creen que no hay virus porque no se conoce mucho. Esto no es verdad, no hay virus porque el sistema no admite virus porque, como dije, está todo a la vista. Los servidores de la bases de datos de los bancos, las grandes bases de datos importantes son de código libre, Google es libre, por ejemplo.

¿Por qué pensaron que era necesario desarrollar un sistema operativo basado en software libre?

Porque se estaban dejando tres millones y medio de máquinas en manos de una corporación, que tiene intereses económicos y sus tiempos. Asimismo, por ejemplo, si queríamos hacer un procesador de texto para las comunidades aborígenes no podíamos hacerlo porque no es posible traducir el Word o si necesitábamos adaptar la placa de red, según el tipo de servicio de determinada zona también teníamos inconvenientes. Tener un software de una empresa es como comprarte un auto y tener el capó soldado.

¿Cuáles son las ventajas que presenta utilizar Huayra frente a Windows?

Es libre y puede ser utilizado por cualquier persona de la comunidad; es gratuito, y ofrece la libertad de poder administrar ese código y hacer las reformas que queremos. Uno de los problemas que veíamos era que los profesores traían un programa para compartir con los chicos y ponían el pendrive en cada computadora y lo bajaban, sin darse cuenta que podían utilizar la red de la escuela. Lo que sucede es que configurar una red no es algo trivial. Huayra, en cambio, autoconfigura la red entonces el profesor deja el programa directamente en una carpeta especial que comparte y los alumnos entran allí para utilizar el programa.

¿En qué se benefician los alumnos al utilizar Huayra?

Que el Estado les brinde su propio sistema operativo libre es un beneficio implícito es más seguro y mucho más rápido. Además, está pensado para que corra en las máquinas más livianas y también funciona bien en las máquinas más viejas.

Otra gran ventaja para los chicos es que tienen una herramienta que sale de la propia escuela, con las necesidades y el aporte de su institución. Hay cientos de aplicaciones del equipo de Huayra y aportadas por las comunidades escolares. En total son casi 30.000 piezas de software.

¿La interfaz es similar a la de Windows o los usuarios verán muchos cambios?

Es similar y además encontrarán programas que no tenían en Windows porque son muy caros. En Huayra, por ejemplo, hay un software para hacer animaciones en 3D que si tuviéramos que comprarlo saldría muy caro. También hay editores de fotos similares a Photoshop.

El procesador de textos de Huayra permite guardarlo en un formato de Word. En el pasado había grandes problemas de compatibilidad entre el software libre y el licenciado pero ahora todo ha evolucionado y ya no existen esos inconvenientes.

Las netbooks de Conectar Igualdad son de diez fabricantes distintos, y tuvimos que trabajar bastante para el desarrollo del sistema operativo, cuenta Javier Castrillo, responsable del proyecto Huayra

Todavía nos falta un buen programa de Autocad 3D, pero tenemos Autocad en 2D. Pero tenemos son muchas herramientas de programación y de robótica incluidas dentro de Hayra.

¿Cómo se realizará la capacitación?

Las netbooks de nuestro programa, a partir de 2012, incluyen TV Digital abierta y allí incluye un montón de tutoriales y paso a paso para poder aprender a utilizarla.

Por otro lado, todas las instancias de capacitación que tiene Educar y el Ministerio de Educación van a tener cursos de Huayra tanto para alumnos como para docentes. Y ya se han formado comunidades de Huayra en Facebook y en Twitter que hacen su propia formación y su aporte a la comunidad.

¿Qué obstáculos tuvieron que sortear?

La principal fue la compatibilidad de hardware. Las netbooks de Conectar Igualdad son de diez fabricantes distintos y tuvimos que trabajar bastante para hacer funcionar nuestro sistema en todos los equipos. Después debimos luchar con los prejuicios que difunden los propios monopolios, que dicen que Linux es difícil, por ejemplo.

Pero ahora estamos muy entusiasmados porque las pruebas están saliendo bien y estamos dentro de los tiempos previstos.

¿Cuáles son los principales proyectos?

La primera etapa de Huayra es que funcione bien en todas las netbooks y en eso estamos abocados. Luego estamos pensando en que funcione en tablets y celulares.

También queremos trabajar para que la TV digital no sirva sólo para ver canales sino que podamos interactuar y brindarle, a través de ella, información útil para el ciudadano.

Y queremos fomentar el desarrollo para que los chicos programen, dándoles herramientas para que puedan programar aunque no sepan hacerlo, para que puedan, por ejemplo, hacer sus propios juegos con las características de su región, de su lenguaje, sus costumbres y que lo compartan con la comunidad.

El software libre en Conectar Igualdad

Huayra toma su nombre del vocablo quechua que significa viento, una analogía que los responsables del proyecto buscan reflejar con la filosofía del proyecto, relacionada con la independencia tecnológica y la libertad que ofrece el software libre. “Es una práctica habitual dentro de la comunidad para que cada programa esté ser representado por un animal. Linux eligió el pingüino, nosotros una vaca”, explica Javier Castrillo.

El equipo de trabajo de Huayra consta de 13 personas, divididos en tres áreas: Desarrollo (programadores), Diseño (artistas, historiadores del arte, diseñadores gráficos) y Sistematización (Sociólogos y estadísticos).

Además de Huayra existe la iniciativa de la comunidad de software libre Tuquito, con sendas versiones para las computadoras de las iniciativas OLPC y Conectar Igualdad .

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Rupert Sanders’ wife files for divorce in LA

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Rupert Sanders‘ wife has filed for divorce five months after it was revealed the director had a brief affair with actress Kristen Stewart.

Liberty Ross, Sanders’ wife of more than nine years, filed for divorce Friday in Los Angeles citing irreconcilable differences.

Ross’ filing cites irreconcilable differences for the couple’s breakup. They have two children, an 8-year-old daughter and 6-year-old son.

The model-actress is seeking joint custody of the children and spousal support from her estranged husband, who directed Stewart in “Snow White and the Huntsman.”

TMZ, which first reported the filing, stated that Sanders also filed divorce paperwork but it was not available on Monday.

Stewart, who has been dating “Twilight” co-star Robert Pattinson, apologized for her fling with Sanders in July after it was revealed by US Weekly.

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Rescuer Appears for New York Downtown Hospital

Manhattan’s only remaining hospital south of 14th Street, New York Downtown, has found a white knight willing to take over its debt and return it to good health, hospital officials said Monday.

NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, one of New York City’s largest academic medical centers, has proposed to take over New York Downtown in a “certificate of need” filed with the State Health Department. The three-page proposal argues that though New York Downtown is projected to have a significant operating loss in 2013, it is vital to Lower Manhattan, including Wall Street, Chinatown and the Lower East Side, especially since the closing of St. Vincent’s Hospital after it declared bankruptcy in 2010.

The rescue proposal, which would need the Health Department’s approval, comes at a precarious time for hospitals in the city. Long Island College Hospital, just across the river in Cobble Hill, Brooklyn, has been threatened with closing after a failed merger with SUNY Downstate Medical Center, and several other Brooklyn hospitals are considering mergers to stem losses.

New York Downtown has been affiliated with the NewYork-Presbyterian health care system while maintaining separate operations.

“We are looking forward to having them become a sixth campus so the people in that community can continue to have a community hospital that continues to serve them,” Myrna Manners, a spokeswoman for NewYork-Presbyterian, said.

Fred Winters, a spokesman for New York Downtown, declined to comment.

Presbyterian’s proposal emphasized that it would acquire New York Downtown’s debt at no cost to the state, a critical point at a time when the state has shown little interest in bailing out failing hospitals.

The proposal said that if New York Downtown were to close, it would leave more than 300,000 residents of Lower Manhattan, including the financial district, Greenwich Village, SoHo, the Lower East Side and Chinatown, without a community hospital. In addition, it said, 750,000 people work and visit in the area every day, a number that is expected to grow with the construction of 1 World Trade Center and related buildings.

The proposal argues that New York Downtown is essential partly because of its long history of responding to disasters in the city. One of its predecessors was founded as a direct result of the 1920 terrorist bombing outside the J. P. Morgan Building, and the hospital has responded to the 1975 bombing of Fraunces Tavern, the 1993 and 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center, and, this month, the crash of a commuter ferry from New Jersey.

Like other fragile hospitals in the city, New York Downtown has shrunk, going to 180 beds, down from the 254 beds it was certified for in 2006, partly because the more affluent residents of Lower Manhattan often go to bigger hospitals for elective care.

The proposal says that half of the emergency department patients at New York Downtown either are on Medicaid, the program for the poor, or are uninsured.

NewYork-Presbyterian would absorb the cost of the hospital’s maternity and neonatal intensive care units, which have been expanding because of demand, but have been operating at a deficit of more than $1 million a year, the proposal said.

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787 worst-case scenario: $5B writeoff by Boeing

As government regulators investigate Boeing's 787 Dreamliner and company engineers seek solutions, investors and analysts are grappling with the question: How much will the plane's grounding cost?

The answer depends on what probes in the United States and Japan uncover, with scenarios ranging from a quick resolution if a few defective parts have to be swapped out to a drawn-out inquiry that requires a fundamental redesign. The worst case scenario: The Dreamliner's problems run so deep that Chief Executive Jim McNerney has to write off about $5 billion in anticipated revenue, said Howard Rubel, a Jefferies & Co. analyst who puts the odds of that at about 4 percent.

The costs are likely to be much less, in the hundreds of millions of dollars, say investors and analysts, including New York-based Rubel. That would let Boeing, which reports 2012 earnings Jan. 30, reap the rewards of what he estimates was a $25 billion investment in the plane, clearing the way for a profit surge and more money for investors.

"As far as dividend growth, cash flow and share buybacks, I think that's still intact," said Gary Bradshaw, a fund manager at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas, who added to his Boeing stake after a fire broke out on a Dreamliner Jan. 7.

U.S. investigators are still searching for what caused the fire in the lithium-ion batteries on a Japan Airlines Co. 787 in Boston that day and a fault that forced an All Nippon Airways Co. plane to make an emergency landing in Japan Jan. 16. The jet debuted commercially in 2011, and 50 have been delivered so far.

The grounding will most likely cost Boeing $550 million, Rubel wrote in a report with a range of potential expenses, from $125 million to reimburse carriers that lease replacement jets to the $5 billion writeoff. Doug Harned, a Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst in New York, estimated Boeing's expense at less than $350 million.

With probes under way by the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board, McNerney will face questions on this week's earnings call that he won't be able to answer. Chicago-based Boeing is due to give its 2013 financial forecast and delivery plans.

"We are working this issue tirelessly," Chaz Bickers, a spokesman, said of the 787. "At the same time, we are keeping our other teams keenly focused on their own program performance and customer commitments."

Earnings per share may rise more than 50 percent, to $7.69 by 2015 from $5 in 2012, the average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Analysts project that Boeing garnered $81.7 billion in sales last year, which may grow to $87.9 billion in 2013.

The planemaker has said it plans to double 787 output to 10 a month this year as it pares a backlog of about 800 unfilled orders. That's one piece of the company's 60 percent production boost in the four years through 2014 to meet demand from airlines for more fuel-efficient planes.

"You look out a couple of years and they could be earning $8 a share, and then you really have a cheap stock," said Bradshaw, at Hodges Capital Management.

Bernstein's Harned estimated that Boeing had set a 787 delivery target of 93 jets for 2013. The planemaker gets a big chunk of the price before delivery, so even if 20 jets push into 2014, only about $1 billion in cash flow would be delayed, and that would be quickly made up, Harned said in a Jan. 22 note.

The shares haven't fallen further in part because investors are used to Dreamliner woes after seven delays pushed back its entry into service by more than three years, according to Carter Leake, a BB&T Capital Markets analyst in Richmond, Va.

In a worst-case scenario, the model may be grounded more than three months, which could force a production slowdown, said Leake, a former pilot who also worked for Canadian planemaker Bombardier Inc. While Boeing continues to assemble 787s, the grounding has halted deliveries, because buyers couldn't fly away in their new planes.

"The market is in a period of disbelief that it could be anything other than a quick fix, despite the fact that we're in an open investigation," Leake said.

Boeing felt the weight of investors' 787 dismay before the grounding. Through last week, the shares had slumped 26 percent since the day before the planemaker disclosed the first Dreamliner delay, in October 2007.

Any reworking of the Dreamliner would come alongside the development this year of the 787-9, a stretched version of the plane, and the upgraded 737 Max, which is scheduled to enter airline fleets in 2017. The planemaker is also working to develop a 787-10 variant and a revamp of the 777.

Concurrent projects have proved a risk in the past, with the Dreamliner's struggles spilling onto the 747-8 jumbo jet program. Its 2011 debut came two years late after Boeing shifted engineers to help on the 787.

The Dreamliner has long been pivotal to Boeing's product strategy. With the plane's promise of a 20 percent gain in fuel economy over comparable wide-bodies, Boeing markets the 787 as a way for airlines to fly long-haul routes without larger 777s or 747 jumbo jets. The 787-8, the only model in service, seats as many as 250 people and lists for about $207 million, though buyers typically get a discount.

The Dreamliner's early setbacks echo the "teething" pains common to new jet models, said Gary Flam, a partner at Bel Air Investment Advisors in Los Angeles, whose holdings include Boeing.

"The market in general is telling you there's some caution, but not tremendous concern yet," Flam said. "I've actually been surprised how well the stock has acted given the news."

In the 1990s, Boeing's 777 encountered delays in getting FAA approval for its engines, and some planes were pulled from trans-Atlantic flights because of power-plant issues.

Among additional early glitches was the delay of the 747's first commercial flight, two decades previously, also for engine troubles. Later, the planemaker had to redesign a rudder-control part on the 737 and replace it on all the jets.

"Boeing has a very strong record of being able to surmount these issues," said Peter Jankovskis, who helps manage $3 billion of assets including Boeing stock as chief investment officer for Oakbrook Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois. "We remain confident in Boeing and their management and technical teams' ability to solve these issues."

Shareholders hoping for clues about the progress of that effort didn't get much when the NTSB gave a briefing last week on its "methodical" inquiry. The agency said yesterday that investigators found no evidence of flaws in the battery charger that would have caused the Boston fire. No problems were found in the auxiliary power unit, which contains the battery, either, the NTSB said.

Investors' support for Boeing and the 787 remains tied to the idea that the faults are in the lithium-ion battery packs, not a fundamental defect in the planemaker's most technologically advanced jet ever, according to Leake, the BB&T analyst.

"If, as this unfolds, it's anything more than a defective battery, then that confidence will start to wane," he said.

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4 protesters arrested at U. of C.'s new medical center

Protesters who want a trauma center on the South Side of Chicago marched into the University of Chicago's new $700 million medical center Sunday afternoon unannounced. Several were arrested.

Protesters marched into the University of Chicago’s new $700-million hospital unannounced on Sunday, shouting and holding handmade signs demanding an adult trauma care center for the city’s South Side.

Ultimately, four people were arrested at the scene, including a 17-year-old student at King College Prep High School.

The protesters staged the sit-in to call attention to the fact that the South Side has no trauma care centers that can treat adults for injuries sustained in shootings, stabbings, car accidents and other traumatic incidents. The U of C’s medical center only admits trauma victims up to age 16.

The movement for an adult trauma care center started shortly after Damian Turner was killed by gunfire in 2010, the unintended victim of a stray bullet three-and-a-half blocks from the University of Chicago Medical Center. He was transported about 10 miles away to Northwestern Memorial Hospital, which has a trauma care center that treats adults.

Most recently, two groups -- Fearless Leading by the Youth and its parent group Southside Together Organizing for Power -- have asked that the age limit for trauma victims at the U of C medical center be raised to 21.

Trauma centers are a significant drain on hospitals’ finances. The U. of C. Medical Center closed its trauma center for adults in 1988. U. of C. Medical Center officials have said establishing trauma center would come at the expense of other vital hospital programs.

Matt Ginsberg-Jaeckle, one of the organizers, said Sunday afternoon’s event protest was the most violent since the campaign began in 2010.

About 2 p.m., an estimated 50 protesters entered the hospital, one man announcing their intent to protest over a megaphone. Five protesters had planned to stay in the lobby and likely be arrested when most of the group would inevitably be kicked off the private property.

Before the majority of the group had a chance to leave on their own, however, University of Chicago police took out their batons and started shoving protesters toward the door, several people tripping and falling onto the floor in the middle of the crowd.

Veronica Morris-Moore, 20, had planned on staying until she was arrested. She was pushed to the ground in the doorway, where she screamed: “Let me go! Let me go!”

Nastasia Tangherlini, 21, a University of Chicago student, also ended up on the ground. After a struggle with officers, both women were released.

Turner’s mother said she was shoved onto her face by a university police officer during the protests. Although not seriously injured, she was visibly upset, with tears streaming down her cheeks after she got onto her feet.

“I was just standing there,” Sheila Rush, Turner’s mom, said.

The group’s camera man had been filming the events when a university police officer hit his camera, knocking off his headphones in the process before he was handcuffed on the ground.

Chicago police officers showed up at the scene minutes after university police started pushing the protesters out the door.

No major injuries were reported from the confrontation. University of Chicago police could not be reached Sunday for comment.

Besides the 17-year-old high school student, the other three arrested were a U of C student government leader, a camera man for the protesters and a member of the Fearless Leading by the Youth group. The 17-year-old student was released around 9:30 p.m. and 20 or so protesters sat in the police station lobby at West 51st Street and South Wentworth Avenue with food and blankets late Sunday night, awaiting the release of the other three arrestees.

Marcia Rothenberg, 79, was at the protest with her husband. A few years ago, they both were in a car accident five blocks from the hospital, but had to be taken in separate ambulances to Northwestern Memorial Hospital, about 10 miles away, she said.

“It’s not just poor, black kids who are shot who need this,” said Rothenberg, who is white. “It’s people like us, too.”

Morris-Moore, who wasn’t arrested but had planned to be, said she doesn’t regret coming to protest, even though she was apprehended temporarily by officers.

“It was intense,” Morris-Moore said. “But that’s what we need people to see.”

Fearless Leading by the Youth issued a statement Sunday night about the protest.

“We feel abused and disrespected and not heard but we are proud of what we did, we actually took action and showed them three years later we’re not going away,” the statement said. “Everybody was focused, we knew what our mission was, we were of one accord.”

ehirst@tribune.com

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